Super Tuesday Cluster-Fuck and Beyond: Aftermath(UPDATE)

The most over-hyped day in politics came and went, welcome to the aftermath. The punditry has been flapping their talking heads for the past week so here is the Duke reports offical Aftermath Of Super Tuesday Cluster-Fuck

Republicans: The republican nomination was all but decided Tuesday. The comeback Geriatric McCain was able to swing away with the majority of states and delegates, and is now a shoe-in for the nomination. McCain’s comeback has been a surprising and clear indicator of a fight within the Republican Party.

Mitt Romney was never that conservative, but he did look like an Arrowhead Model. However because of the inept candidacies of Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, Romney became de-facto, and conservatives distrusting of McCain flocked to him as their only hope. In the end however, no matter what Rush Limbaugh said or did, Romney lost and McCain won.

Huckabee gave McCain the edge to win. There are 3 (sometimes overlapping) types of conservatives, social (generally Christian), economic and defense. Huckabee was able to stay in long enough to woo both evangelicals and Walker Texas Ranger fans away from Romney. The fact that he was Mormon didn’t help.

In the next few weeks, McCain will try to make amends with the conservatives who distrust him on issues like immigration and campaign Finance reform. He will accomplish this by nominating a southern conservative, possibly Huckabee or Fred Thompson to do the same thing JFK did with LBJ, appease.

UPDATE: Huckabee has decided to stick it in. The Republican Party is running around like a chicken with its head cut off. Romney’s Delegates are up for grabs and Huckabee has the VERY LONG SHOT possibility of beating McCain if he can muster some last minute anti-McCain majorities.

The Republican Establishment has sided with McCain, and they hate Huckabee. This most likely is already done, but with this election so far, who knows.

RON PAUL IS ESSENTIALLY DROPPING OUT. Unfortunately, fervent support even from myself wasn’t able to get Paul into even Huckabee longshot territory. The campaign has been worthwhile and important. The most important thing is that this new Libertarian movement stays together and fights on. Ron Paul was never the savior of America, he was an honest politician in a time where there are none. He needs to focus on being re-elected to congress to keep his voice heard. If you were passionate about Paul and his message continue the real fight.

Great change will not come from the top down. You will be sitting around with your thumb up your ass before that shit will ever happen. Start banding together at state and local levels to elect officials that share the message of freedom from oppressive government. But without this base, progressives, greens, libertarians, any third party group will not succeed. We need to stop focusing about shit like the presidency and start focusing on local, state, and congressional races. Ron Paul would agree, that is how you fuck their system.

Democrats: The democratic side Tuesday was less decisive. Hillary was able to hold off Obama’s increasing momentum. While Obama is slightly ahead in delegates, Hillary is by no means out of the race, but fundraising and polls do indicate a clear momentum for Obama. He raised 30 million in January and millions more this week whereas Hillary has wrote her campaign a check for 5 million and asked staff to go without pay. Obama clearly has the wind at his back.

However the upcoming states will be very difficult for either to win outright. With the exception of a huge surprise or gaffe, this fight could very well go all the way to the convention, something that DNC chair Howard Dean has already warned against. And unfortunately, it ultimately may be decided thru backdoor party treachery.

Super delegates and invalid elections in Michigan and Florida may end up deciding this nomination. Super delegates are not elected by primaries or caucuses, they are party establishment who can vote for whoever they want and are not tied to the wishes of the people. They have been shown to favor Clinton and they will be hard fought over. Ultimately however, someone could win the majority of delegates but have the nomination stripped if the super delegates decide to spoil it.

Even more troubling to the Obama camp is the problem with Michigan and Florida. They moved up their primaries illegally so the party penalized them by stripping their delegates. The candidates agreed to not campaign there except, at the last second, Hillary broke her promise. She didn’t remove her name from the Ballot in Michigan as promised like Obama and Edwards and she campaigned in Florida when she said she wouldn’t. Now she is crying that although the contests weren’t sanctioned she wants the delegates. If she is able to get these delegates, aside from being an outright liar and cheat, she will be the Democratic Nominee.

The Republicans want Hillary because they think they can beat her. Imagine John McCain, who looks like the crypt keeper up next to the dynamic, “clean” Obama. No contest.

But at the end of the day November is months away. A third party runner could shift these numbers all out of whack; Ron Paul isn’t going anywhere yet. At the end of the day, Tuesday gave us McCain, took from us Mitt, and set the stage for a bitter and backdoor fight between Obama and Clinton. Now would someone end the writers strike so we Americans can go back to not paying attention? Our head hurts.

UPDATE: Obama is kicking some Hill-dog ass. He swept her over the weekend and looks like he will continue to do so for the next couple weeks. She has changed head staff around and now is trying to rebuild her image as that of underdog. She has to win in Texas and Ohio to have any shot at legitimately claiming the Nomination. We shall see if when the inevitable Obama popular victory happens if she will bow out gracefully(with might I add a better shot of making a successful bid later) or try and steal it thru democrats of Florida. Time will tell.